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The prospect that US residents may soon be able to invest in bitcoin through their brokerage, as if it were a regular stock, has prompted a fresh round of hype in crypto circles—and a surge in crypto prices.
Several investment firms, including heavy-hitters like BlackRock and Fidelity, are queuing up to launch a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. These funds would track the price of bitcoin, making them the closest thing to investing in the crypto token directly without dealing with a crypto exchange or storing crypto manually, a process fraught with risk.
After a bruising 18 months in which crypto prices buckled, high-profile businesses collapsed, and two crypto figureheads were convicted of crimes in the US, the crypto industry is supposed to be cleaning up its act. That the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be entertaining a spot bitcoin ETF after years of resistance is seen by some as a signal that crypto is moving beyond its free-wheeling years.
The arrival of such a fund in the US—by far the world’s largest ETF market—“is a significant milestone,” says Samson Mow, a prominent bitcoin evangelist and CEO of bitcoin-centric technology firm JAN3, as it will allow investors to hold bitcoin through a conventional financial product for the first time.
While there is broad consensus around the likelihood of an ETF approval among analysts, the idea that it would be symbolic of the industry’s coming of age is contradicted by the frenzy of speculation around what will happen to the price of bitcoin.
On X, crypto influencers with hundreds of thousands of followers are predicting an ETF will send the price of bitcoin soaring, in posts peppered with the rocket ship emoji. The arrival of a spot bitcoin ETF, claims Mow, will unlock a wave of pent-up demand and lead a “torrent of capital” to “pour into bitcoin.” Institutions and other investors that either cannot or choose not to invest in unregulated financial products will seize the opportunity to invest, he says, driving the price far beyond its previous heights.
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An ETF might point to a growing acceptance of bitcoin among legacy financial institutions, but the implications for the price of bitcoin are being both mis- and overstated, ETF analysts warn, and the boosterism on display shows that little about crypto has changed.
Twelve applications for spot bitcoin ETFs are awaiting approval from the SEC. Delays are commonplace, but the agency is due to make a call on some of the applications as early as January 1, 2024. The three ETF analysts who spoke to WIRED expect the SEC to green-light a spot bitcoin ETF at some point next year.
In Canada, Germany, and elsewhere, spot bitcoin ETFs already exist. And US investors have had access to bitcoin futures ETFs, the value of which are correlated with the price of bitcoin, since 2021. The approval of a spot bitcoin ETF in the US is significant because it would, for the first time, give US investors access to a close proxy to bitcoin in a familiar and regulated format.
The attention paid to the topic by crypto trade media emphasizes the current fixation in industry circles. Since this summer, when speculation about the arrival of a spot bitcoin ETF began to ratchet up, crypto news site CoinDesk has published dozens of articles and videos on the topic.
In that same period, crypto markets have experienced dramatic swings, and the price of bitcoin has risen by almost a third. In some cases, price swings have been triggered by rumor and misreporting. On October 16, crypto outlet CoinTelegraph issued a retraction and apology after putting out an erroneous post on X announcing the approval of the first spot bitcoin ETF in the US, based on a screenshot posted by an X user, which led to a buying spree that increased the price of bitcoin by 10 percent.
On November 13, a falsified ETF filing relating to a separate cryptocurrency, XRP, caused a 13 percent rise in the token’s price. By the end of the day, those gains had evaporated. The Financial Times calculated that “imaginary bitcoin ETFs” were already worth 30 times the actual spot bitcoin ETFs already in existence worldwide.
Some ETF analysts, like Aniket Ullal of investment research firm CFRA, share the belief that the arrival of an ETF is likely to increase demand for bitcoin as an investment asset. But the effect on price will not be a “short-term spike,” Ullal says, but rather stretch out over multiple years.
Others say it will have the polar opposite effect to that predicted by figures like Mow, and that the price of bitcoin could plummet as investors attracted by the hubbub quickly cash out their winnings. “The idea that there is a huge pile of demand that will somehow materialize is just not true,” argues Peter Schiff, economist and CEO at asset management firm Euro Pacific. “It’s more of a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ situation.”
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The “narrative” that an ETF is a “catalyst for growing demand” has attracted speculators, says Bryan Armour, director of passive research strategies for North America at investment research firm Morningstar. “Hype has always been one of the core tenets of bitcoin. It seems like hype is at an all-time high.”
Figures from research firm Fineqia suggest the volume of crypto trading activity has surged in response to speculation over the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF and its market impact. In mid-November, daily trading volume on crypto exchanges reached $31.4 billion, the highest level in more than six months.
“There’s always the possibility that people are hyping it up for their own benefit,” says Mow, who adds that he doesn’t believe the broader crypto industry—which he considers to be separate from bitcoin and describes as a “grift”—is capable of cleaning up its act. “The crypto industry will keep churning out FTXs and people will keep investing because it’s a spectacle,” he says.
But whether or not bitcoin is different—a mature asset whose legitimacy would be “cemented,” as Mow claims, by an ETF approval—the relentless speculation surrounding it will expose investors to risk. “It is wildly volatile and should be handled carefully,” says Armour. But, he adds, people “hear the siren song and buy in.”
